The transition to remote learning during the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant and persistent negative impact on key indicators of post-secondary preparedness and access for high school students. New data analyzed by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals substantial declines in the percentages of students completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), taking the ACT standardized test, and enrolling in their first year of college during the 2020-21 academic year. These findings underscore a growing concern among educators and policymakers about the long-term consequences of pandemic-induced disruptions on college-going pathways, particularly for students from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Pandemic’s Disruptive Force on College Aspirations
The NBER study, which examined data spanning the 2015-16 through 2021-22 school years, meticulously analyzed a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 14,000 public high schools. The research draws upon information from the COVID School Data Hub, federal FAFSA submission records, college enrollment figures from the National Student Clearinghouse, ACT participation statistics, and demographic data from the National Center for Education Statistics. Notably, the study did not include SAT data in its analysis.
The core of the NBER’s findings points to a direct correlation between the pivot to remote instruction and the observed dips in post-secondary planning activities. Researchers suggest that the diminished direct contact with school counselors and teachers during periods of remote learning may have subtly but significantly eroded students’ perceptions of college feasibility and its overall worth. This disruption in guidance and support, crucial for navigating the complex landscape of college applications and financial aid, appears to have had a tangible effect on student decision-making.
Disparities Magnified: The Impact on Low-Income Students
A particularly concerning aspect of the NBER’s research is the disproportionate negative impact of virtual instruction on college-going activities at schools with a higher concentration of low-income students. The study found that schools with a greater percentage of students eligible for free or reduced-price lunch experienced significantly larger declines in FAFSA completion rates and college enrollment. The researchers estimate that the negative influence of virtual instruction was "more than three times larger in higher-poverty schools."
This pattern strongly suggests that in-school guidance and timely reminders are especially critical for disadvantaged students. These students, who are often first-generation college aspirants, may have fewer readily available alternative sources of information and support outside of the school environment. The absence of this structured support system during the pandemic appears to have exacerbated existing inequalities, creating greater barriers to higher education for those already facing socioeconomic challenges.
A Chronology of Disruption and Recovery Challenges
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 marked a seismic shift in educational delivery. Schools across the nation rapidly transitioned to remote learning models, fundamentally altering the daily routines and support structures for millions of students.
- Spring 2020: The initial widespread closure of school buildings and the abrupt shift to online instruction marked the beginning of the disruption. This period saw a significant reduction in face-to-face interactions between students and guidance counselors, who are instrumental in assisting with FAFSA applications, college research, and standardized test preparation.
- 2020-2021 Academic Year: This period represents the core focus of the NBER study’s findings regarding declining FAFSA completion, ACT participation, and first-year college enrollment. The extended reliance on virtual learning during this academic year is directly linked to the observed negative trends.
- Fall 2021 and Beyond: While some schools began to return to in-person learning, the lingering effects of the pandemic continued to influence student behaviors and post-secondary aspirations. Data from subsequent years, including the fall 2025 figures for ACT and SAT participation, indicate that the recovery in standardized test taking has been slow, with numbers still below pre-pandemic levels.
- November 2024: A report from the Century Foundation highlighted that while FAFSA completion rates among low-income students had largely rebounded by this time, middle-income students were still experiencing lower completion rates compared to the pre-pandemic era. This suggests a complex and uneven recovery across different socioeconomic groups.
Supporting Data: The Numbers Behind the Trends
The NBER study’s conclusions are substantiated by a wealth of data, illustrating the scale of the decline in post-secondary preparedness indicators. While specific percentage drops are not detailed in the provided excerpt, the consistent reporting of declines across FAFSA completion, ACT participation, and first-year college enrollment paints a clear picture of the pandemic’s impact.
Further reinforcing these findings are external reports on standardized test participation. According to fall 2025 data, approximately 1.38 million students took the ACT, a notable decrease from the 1.78 million who took the test in 2019. Similarly, around 2 million students took the SAT in 2025, compared to 2.22 million in 2019. These figures, while not directly from the NBER study, provide corroborating evidence of a sustained dip in standardized test participation, a crucial step for many college admissions processes.
The Century Foundation’s analysis from November 2024 adds another layer of detail, indicating that while low-income students have shown resilience in FAFSA completion, middle-income students are still lagging behind pre-pandemic benchmarks. This disparity suggests that the support mechanisms available to low-income students, perhaps through targeted outreach programs or community initiatives, may be more effective in mitigating the pandemic’s effects than those available to middle-income families.
Analysis of Implications: A Call for Renewed Focus on College Access
The implications of the NBER’s findings are far-reaching and demand a concerted effort from educational institutions, policymakers, and community organizations. The observed declines in FAFSA completion, ACT participation, and first-year college enrollment, particularly among disadvantaged students, signal a potential widening of the college access gap.
- Impact on College Enrollment Pipelines: Reduced FAFSA completion directly affects the number of students who can access federal and state financial aid, a critical component for making college affordable. This can deter students from even considering higher education, regardless of their academic qualifications.
- Standardized Testing Barriers: Lower ACT participation might mean fewer students are meeting the testing requirements for certain college admissions or scholarship opportunities. While test-optional policies have become more prevalent, standardized tests remain a significant factor for many institutions.
- Long-Term Economic and Social Outcomes: A decline in college enrollment, especially among students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, can have long-term consequences on individual earning potential, career advancement, and overall social mobility. This could exacerbate existing societal inequalities.
- Need for Targeted Interventions: The NBER study’s emphasis on the disproportionate impact on higher-poverty schools highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions. This could include intensified outreach from college access programs, expanded financial aid counseling services, and partnerships with community organizations to provide consistent support.
- Rethinking Guidance and Support Structures: The pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in traditional student support systems. Educational institutions may need to explore innovative and flexible approaches to guidance counseling, utilizing technology and personalized outreach to ensure students remain engaged with their post-secondary aspirations, even in the face of disruptions.
Official Responses and Future Directions
While the provided excerpt does not contain direct quotes from officials or institutions reacting to the NBER findings, the implications of this research are likely to resonate within the education policy sphere. The findings align with ongoing discussions about the challenges of post-pandemic educational recovery and the need to address equity gaps.
It is plausible that educational agencies and advocacy groups will use this data to:
- Advocate for increased funding for college access programs: The study’s findings could bolster arguments for greater investment in programs that provide guidance and support to students navigating the college application process.
- Push for policy changes to simplify FAFSA application: Efforts to streamline the FAFSA, such as the FAFSA Simplification Act, aim to make the process more accessible. This research could highlight the continued importance of such initiatives.
- Encourage schools to bolster their college and career counseling services: The findings underscore the critical role of school counselors and may prompt institutions to invest more in these essential support staff.
- Promote innovative approaches to college readiness: The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of digital tools and hybrid learning models. This research could inspire the development of new strategies for college preparation that are resilient to future disruptions.
The NBER’s comprehensive analysis serves as a critical reminder of the profound and lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on educational pathways. As the nation continues to navigate the post-pandemic landscape, understanding and addressing these declines in FAFSA completion, ACT participation, and college enrollment will be paramount to ensuring equitable access to higher education and fostering a more inclusive future for all students. The data presented is not merely a statistical report but a call to action, urging a renewed commitment to supporting students, particularly those most vulnerable, in their pursuit of post-secondary success.
